The Automotive Disruption Radar is a biannual analysis of market trends related to disruption in the global automotive industry. Its latest findings are based on field research and a survey of 23,000+ car users across 23 markets (Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, UAE, UK, USA). Information is also drawn from external sources such as leading mobility experts and major industry reports.

Each nation is scored along 26 indicators, grouped into five dimensions. The ADR aims to answer key questions such as: which factors are driving change in automotive ecosystems; how do these factors evolve over time; and what can decision makers do to best manage disruption?

Ultimately, the ADR is a go-to decision-making tool for senior executives in the mobility sector. It is the established and only tool in the market measuring the change in the Automotive industry.

Who is behind this platform

Automotive World is a leading B2B publication for the mobility sector. It draws on a global network of expert contributors to produce insightful articles, reports, data sets, forecasts, webinars and conferences. Right now, Automotive World is focusing on connected and autonomous vehicle technology, urban and shared mobility, advanced propulsion and the future of trucking.

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carbometrix* mission is to make companies’ carbon performance data accessible and comparable. We help decision makers direct financial flows towards a low carbon economy.  We are developing the most comprehensive carbon data and rating platform in the world.  We believe carbon transparency and benchmarks are essential to trigger a drastic change towards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

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CHARGING RADAR* uniquely combines strategic market intelligence and analyst advisory services through data, insights, and analytical tools. They enable industry leaders to make fact-based decisions to power their market monitoring, business planning, and strategic growth. CHARGING RADAR partners with industry leaders and new market entrants across automotive and utility industries, CPO and MSP networks, consulting firms, investment companies and governmental bodies to support them in their strategic planning and day-to-day operations and enables them to make fact-based decisions.

CHARGING RADAR is a service by THEON Data Solutions GmbH powered by CIRRANTiC GmbH.

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CoMotion* is a global platform where leaders of the most innovative transportation and technology companies around the world meet with urban policymakers to share ideas, do business and plan the new mobility future. CoMotion organizes exclusive world-class events such as CoMotion LIVECoMotion LA and CoMotion MIAMI, and is the new mobility industry’s premiere source for news, insights, and analysis.

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fka GmbH*, as a research partner to the automotive industry since 1981, develops innovative solutions and delivers strategic consulting. We are a research facility, provider of creative ideas and driver of innovation. Our holistic approach and unique infrastructure for simulation, testing and evaluation allows us to see the big picture and be your specialist for details at the same time.

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Roland Berger* is the only management consultancy of European heritage with a strong international footprint. As an independent firm, solely owned by our Partners, we operate 50 offices in all major markets. Our 2400 employees offer a unique combination of an analytical approach and an empathic attitude. Driven by our values of entrepreneurship, excellence and empathy, we at Roland Berger are convinced that the world needs a new sustainable paradigm that takes the entire value cycle into account. Working in cross-competence teams across all relevant industries and business functions, we provide the best expertise to meet the profound challenges of today and tomorrow.

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Springer Fachmedien* is part of the Professional Group within Springer Nature – one of the world’s leading science and professional publishers. Working from a Wiesbaden location, Springer Fachmedien produces journals, events and online services which are tailored to engineers and managers, especially in the automotive and finance industries.

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*Part of the Joint Controllership

List of all indicators and measures

The ADR looks at 26 selected indicators that have been measured on a factual basis, including interviews with over 23,000 end users. All indicators are analyzed across 23 markets, providing context for determining in which markets the transition is accelerating. The ADR’s 26 indicators are grouped into five dimensions:

  1. Customer interest: Which kind of mobility solutions do people prefer?
  2. Regulation: What are the regulatory conditions?
  3. Technology: How far advanced is the technology for future mobility solutions?
  4. Infrastructure: How developed is the infrastructure for future mobility solutions?
  5. Industry activities: Which solutions have been announced or already exist?

Rating criteria

IndicatorDefinition012345
Mobility concept preferences% of people knowing at least 1 person that did not want to buy a car because they exclusively use other mobility concepts, rounded to 5%0%
≤x
<20%
20%
≤x
<40%
40%
≤x
<60%
60%
≤x
<80%
80%
≤x
<100%
x≥100%
Autonomous vehicle preference% of people who would still buy a car if autonomous robo-cabs were cheaper per trip, rounded to 5%0%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<15%
15%
≤x
<30%
30%
≤x
<50%
50%
≤x
<75%
x≥75%
Mobility planning % of people using an app at least once a week, rounded to 5%0%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<15%
15%
≤x
<30%
30%
≤x
<50%
50%
≤x
<75%
x≥75%
Digitized culture preference“% of people with interest to directly buy on the internet, rounded to 5%
0%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<15%
15%
≤x
<30%
30%
≤x
<50%
50%
≤x
<75%
x≥75%
EV preferenceShare of potential EV buyers,rounded to 5%0%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<15%
15%
≤x
<30%
30%
≤x
<50%
50%
≤x
<75%
x≥75%
Mobility behaviourCar usage as a percentage of distance driven, rounded to 5%100%
≤x
<80%

60%
≤x
<80%
60%
≤x
<40%
40%
≤x
≤25%
25%
≤x
<10%
x≤10%
EV/PHEV sales% of EVs/PHEVs of total vehicle sales0%
≤x
<1%
1%
≤x
<2%
2%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<10%
10%
≤x
<20%
x≥20%
Customer curiosityCustomer interest across the dimensions autonomous (A), electric (E), and mobility services (M) (from 0 to 100)M, A and E below 20%2 dimensions below 20%None below 20%1 above 40%;none below 20%2 above 40%; none below 20%All above 40%
Type approval processProgress regarding type approval process for autonomous vehiclesNo discussionInitial discussions ongoingBasic regulatory scene for type approval setRegulation for concrete type approval process in progressRegulation for concrete type appro-val process in decision phaseNo limitation for type approval
Restrictions for ICEsCity country score / max country scoreScore=00
≤Score
<5%
5%
≤Score <10
10%
≤Score
<20
20
≤Score
<50
Score≥50%
CO2 legislationCurrent CO2-emission target in grams – ∆ to base-line 202515% less strict than baseline10% less strict than baseline5% less strict than baselineBaseline5% stricter than baseline10% stricter than baseline
Automotive association activities% share of positive actions/press releases on total number of actions/releases0
≤x
<10%
10%
≤x
<30%
30%
≤x
<50%
50%
≤x
<75%
75%
≤x
<100%
x≥100%
Autonomous vehicle – Computing powerAchieved step in reaching computer power necessary for autonomous drivingNo activityFeasibility provenDevelopment road maps in placeRoadmap-milestone achievedCommercialization -> widespread adoptionWidespread adoption
Patent activites% share of patents filed within automotive concerned with autonomous tech0
≤x
<0.5%
0.5%
≤x
<1%
1%
≤x
<2%
2%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<10%
x≥10%
Battery cost – EVsDeviation from latest forecast of 120 EUR/kWh in 2020 as baseline (3 points)≥132
EUR/kWh
<132
EUR/kWh
<126
EUR/kWh
<120 EUR/kWh<114
EUR/kWh
<108
EUR/kWh
Venture Capital invest – MobilityTotal relevant VC capital [USD bn]0
≤x
<0.1
0.1
≤x
<2.5
2.5
≤x
<5
5
≤x
<10
10
≤x
<15
x≥15
Venture Capital invest – Artificial intelligenceTotal relevant VC capital [USD bn]0
≤x
<0.1
0.1
≤x
<2.5
2.5
≤x
<5
5
≤x
<10
10
≤x
<15
x≥15
Mobile network – 5G coverageAchieved step in rollout of 5G networkNo activityFeasibility provenDevelop-ment road-maps in placeFrequency allocation achievedStart of service commerciallizationWidespread adoption
(≥ 10% users 5G)
EV/PHEV charging infrastructureCharging stations per km roadways0%
≤x
<1%
1%
≤x
<2%
2%
≤x
<5%
5%
≤x
<10%
10%
≤x
<15%
x≥15%
Multi modal mobilityShare of trips in which more than one possible mode of transportation is available0%
≤x
<30
30%
≤x
<45%
“45%
≤x
<60
60%
≤x
<75%
75%
≤x
<90%
x≥90%
Vehicle-2-vehicle communication% share of models with V2V functions in total models in the marketNo vehicles with V2V functionFirst V2V functions in market5% of models with V210% of models with V220% of models with V2V2V mandated in plac
Test roads – Autonomous vehicleof test tracks in operation, scale from 0 to 5Tests not allowed1 to 3 test tracks4 to 5 test tracksHigh number of public test trackTest on streets in selected regionNo limitation for test
Automotive products (Level 4+)% share of “”Level 4 city vehicles”” in total car parcNo ActivityFeasibility provenDevelopment road-maps in placeRoadmap milestone achievedCommercialization -> widespread adoptionWidespread adoption
R&D intensity – Autonomous drivingFTEs listed on LinkedIn
[‘000 employees]
0
≤x
<10
10
≤x
<25
25
≤x
<50
50
≤x
<100
100
≤x
<150
x≥150
EV portfolio% share of EV models in total models currently on offer0
≤x
<1%
1%
≤x
<10%
10%
≤x
<20%
20%
≤x
<30%
30%
≤x
<40%
x≥40%
Amount of shared vehiclesShare of shared vehicles in car parc
[in %]
≤1%1%
<x
≤3%
3%
<x
≤5%
5%
<x
≤10%
10%
<x
≤25%
x>25%